Ua hōʻike ʻo Ryan Lee, ka mea loiloi nui ma Bitget Research, ʻoiai ʻo Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) i hoʻoikaika nui i ka holo ʻana o ke kumukūʻai hou o Bitcoin, ʻo nā ʻano politika, ʻenehana, a me nā mea waiwai e hoʻoulu nei i ka wikiwiki o ka cryptocurrency.
Mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā wahi Bitcoin ETF ma US i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2024, ua ʻoi aku kēia mau huahana ma mua o $ 24 biliona i loko o ka ʻupena inflows, me $ 5.4 biliona i ʻOkakopa wale nō. Eia naʻe, hōʻike ʻo Lee ʻaʻole ʻo nā ETF wale nō ke kuleana no ke ʻano bullish o Bitcoin, no ka mea, ua hoʻi hou ka waiwai e hoʻāʻo i ka pae $73,000.
ʻO ka manawa politika ma mua o ke koho balota ʻana o ʻAmelika
Ua kuhikuhi ʻo Lee i ke koho pelekikena o ʻAmelika e hiki mai ana ma ke ʻano he mea kōkua nui i ka manaʻo maikaʻi o Bitcoin. ʻO nā moho alakaʻi ʻelua—Donald Trump lāua ʻo Kamala Harris—ua hōʻike i ko lākou kūpaʻa e hoʻomaʻemaʻe i nā ʻōnaehana hoʻoponopono no nā waiwai kikohoʻe. "Me ka hoʻokokoke ʻana o ke koho balota, ke hilinaʻi nei nā manaʻo o ka mākeke i kahi ʻoihana kākoʻo crypto ma lalo o kēlā me kēia moho," wahi a Lee. ʻO ke ala pololei o Trump, ʻo ia hoʻi, ua hoʻāla i ka manaʻo maikaʻi no ka hoʻoponopono ʻoihana ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi.
ʻO nā hōʻailona ʻenehana ka ikaika hōʻailona
Ma ka ʻenehana mua, ʻo Bitcoin ka "kea gula" hou loa - kahi i ʻoi aku ai ka 50-lā neʻe awelika ma mua o ka 200-lā neʻe awelika ma ʻOkakopa 27-hōʻailona i kahi ala bullish, e like me Lee. ʻIke pinepine ʻia kēia hōʻailona ma ke ʻano he harbinger o ka hoʻomau ʻana i ka mahalo i ke kumukūʻai, e hāʻawi ana i ka hilinaʻi o ka mea hoʻopukapuka kālā i ka hiki ʻana o Bitcoin.
ʻO nā hanana hoʻokele waiwai i Nowemapa e hoʻohālike i ka papa ʻo Bitcoin
Hoʻopuka pū ʻo Lee i nā hanana waiwai koʻikoʻi i Nowemapa e hiki ke hoʻopilikia i ka hana a Bitcoin. ʻO ka hoʻoholo ʻana o ka uku paneʻe a ka Federal Reserve e hiki mai ana ma Nowemapa 7 hiki ke hoʻoikaika nui. "ʻO ka hiki ke hōʻoki ʻia he 25-basis-point rate hiki ke hoʻomaikaʻi i ka waiwai macroeconomic, e pōmaikaʻi paha i nā waiwai crypto," i ʻōlelo ai ʻo ia, me ka hoʻohui ʻana e hiki ke hōʻoluʻolu i ka piʻi ʻana i luna o ka US Dollar Index a me ka waihona kālā.
Hoʻohui ʻia, kuhikuhi ʻo ia i nā metric futures Bitcoin, me ka CME's BTC open interest a hiki i kahi kiʻekiʻe o nā manawa āpau, kahi hōʻailona o ka ulu ʻana o ka hoihoi ʻoihana ma Bitcoin. Inā loaʻa ʻo Microsoft i ka lono o Bitcoin, manaʻo ʻo Lee hiki iā ia ke hana ma ke ʻano he hōʻoia nui o ka hana a Bitcoin i ka ʻāina hoʻokele waiwai.
hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo
ʻOiai ua hoʻohui nā ETF i ka waiwai nui i ka mākeke Bitcoin, ʻo ka hui pū ʻana o nā hoʻomohala politika maikaʻi, nā hōʻailona ʻenehana bullish, a me nā hanana waiwai pivotal e hoʻolalelale nei i ka manawa o Bitcoin. Ke hoʻomau nei ʻo Lee me ka makaʻala maikaʻi, me ka ʻike ʻana ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka loli o ka mākeke, hiki ke hoʻomau i ke ala ākea o Bitcoin ma waena o ka noi ʻoihana a me nā hale kūʻai.